The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel

ISBN: 0446579785
ISBN 13: 9780446579780
By: Stephen Leeb Glen C. Strathy

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Genres

Audible Business Currently Reading Economics Finance Financial Non Fiction Nonfiction Peak Oil To Read

About this book

Economist Stephen Leeb shows how surging oil prices will contribute to a huge economic collapse by soaring to over $100 a barrel - and tells how you can avoid the pitfalls of the upcoming crisis.

Reader's Thoughts

Coolbreeze

This book offers insight into the economy and how it is affected by the price of oil. With finance at its core, the book offers some investment strategies taylored for a bad economy. However, one must exercise caution if considering some of the investment strategies, as no one, including the well meaning author, can accurately predict future events.

Judy

The subtitle of this book is "How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel." Leeb, who holds PhDs in economics, math, and psychology, presents a bleak but believable picture of a world in which oil is no longer available to the average person. He discusses the world's depleting oil supplies, the world-wide dependence on oil, and the consequences of not pursuing a replacement power source. It is a pretty frightening scenario. This books was written in 2005, and his prediction of skyrocketing oil costs was validated by last summer's spikes. His discussion of "group think" in regards to both the environment and economics was especially interesting to me. The book includes an appendix of tips for investing in what is sure to be a changing world. While I don't have either the science or the economic background to totally understand all he said, there was plenty here to make me think and re-evaluate my views.

Marilyn

This book is awesome. No one can say we haven't been warned...

Mitro Pietro

Exellent and objective analysis of energy economics from 2005 (published in 2006), which have proven to be disturbingly accurate. Criticisms of this book, based on the investment advice it gives, are overdone, as investment strategies comprise very little of the book, itself. The book is more about the social and economic consequences of a high global demand for oil and an oil supply that is declining.

Derek

not a good prognosis if things don't change in regards to leadership and their priorities

Jason

This book was written in Feb 2006 and I am just now reading it. Had I read it (and believed it) then, I would have made a lot of money over the past few years on his recommendations. Question now is whether there is still any validity to the strategies given where we have come in last 24 months. (Gold $400->$1000, Oil $60->$110, etc.)I personally agree with many of his general thoeries:1.) We are at a supply limit on crude oil. Growth in this environment is going to be down right impossible.2.) Consequently, serious inflation (ala the 1970's) is coming our way.3.) The Fed will lack the ability and wherewithal to affect monetary policy to fight the inflation. Because the limited supply of the products we need to sustain, monetary policy alont can't correct it, without a serious economic downturn. Fed's January actions indicate that they care much less about inflation than growth any way.Leeb plays all of it to the extreme and comes up with some dire consequences of our ways. We will all end up farming our back 40 acres to survive?Things I strongly disagree with him is that governments should allow market conditions to take full hold even if that means paying $12 a gallon for gasoline. What Leeb calls tax breaks for oil companies are ridiculous misunderstandings of the business and why those tax benefits are in the code.1.) Depeletion -> No other industry is producing from reservoirs (cash streams) that are 10-35% less every year. 2.) Deduction of Drilling Costs -> You CAN NOT treat drilling costs like normal equipment. They are sunk costs. Wihtout the abilility to deduct that as an expense would absolutely KILL drilling in this country. He supports using these taxes to develop alternative energy sources, his biggest pet project being wind. LEEB wake up! The wind does not blow all the time. The sun does not shine all of the time. These are ineffcient methods for energy. Fossil fuel use is here to stay and must be a part of a reliable energy poilcy going forward. Besides how hypocritical to state on one hand that we should not be "subsidizing" fossil fuel usage while at the same time knowing full well that wind turbines simple don't make economic sense without federal tax breaks and subsidies. Why? Because electrical generation plants can't depend on them. They HAVE to have a coal/natural gas back up.All said, this is an eye opening book and he nailed a lot of precictions (a big whiff on real estate) and they probably came true a lot earlier than even he thought. I will most likely change my personal portfolio based on a lot of his thoughts.

Mike

This is the strangest investment book I've ever read. The authors spend about 170 pages (out of 196) explaining why the economy may collapse. The premise is that Peak Oil Theory is correct, that the supply of cheap oil is dwindling, and as a result, society as we know it may change drastically.The weird part is that after each gloom-and-doom scenario they paint, the authors provide a glimpse of hope. For example, they mention that the shortage of cheap oil may cause a new age of barbarism and lawlessness that will result in a lot of people being killed as a relatively small number of strong clever people take what they need to survive... but we'll show you how to profit from it!It's not quite humorous, but it comes close. The investment advice seems solid. After they spend 170 pages explaining how they were right about the price of oil (predicting further that it could hit $100 by the end of the decade, which of course it has) and how energy affects everything and which historical trends to learn from, and so on, I'm inclined to trust their advice.So when society crumbles and we all go back to living a pastoral existence on an Amish-style farm near a small town, I'll be able to sleep on a huge pile of hundred dollar bills.

Ben

It does a good job of explaining in simple terms what the problem of "peak oil" is and why it will happen. It then goes on to predict it will happen before the end of this decade...

John

Leeb understands the ongoing commodity supercycle and its long-term investment implications

Jay

Excellent book, very accurate and foretelling. The book was written in 2006, I read it in 2008 when basically the stuff was happening that they predicted. Except that oil never reached $200, but was well over $100, they pretty much had it nailed.

Derek Barnes

You'd think a book with this title would be pretty pessimistic. However, his economic forecast written in 2006 is, though accurate, shockingly not pessimistic ENOUGH!!! He laid out the dangers of housing inflation, but predicted that it couldn't possibly deflate because the prospect was just too horrendous to contemplate. I've got his Game Over book in my hands right now and looking forward to reading his thoughts of the 2008 crash aftermath.

James

April 2010 This s a pathetically bad book. The author has a hysterical style of writing. Mr. Chicken little. The author thinks the next decade will be a near perfect repeat of the 1970's, and what worked then will work in the next decade. And what didn't work in the 70's will be a failure once again. Myself, I believe in peak oil; I have no doubt we'll see $10 a gallon gas before too many years. But half the oil used in the US is used by transportation.Most in personal driving around. This isn't necessary for the economy to prosper. When gas goes to $10, my bet is that people will use a lot less.And get rid of the gas guzzlers they currently like.And public transportation will be used a lot more.\ The book was written in 2006, before the housing crisis.Page 179, the author says: "we think real estate still has merit as an investment, just as it did in the 1970s. The trigger that could pop the real estate bubble would be higher interest rates..." Less than 2 years from meltdown and he didn't have a clue aboutthe rotten lending or the prime slime borrowers. Gold did well in the 70's, so it's certain to do well in the next decade. He has no imagination at all.The future will be a simplistic repeat of the past.

Paul Irvine

You might expect this to be a typical "the sky is falling" type book. Its not. Its very well reasoned, researched, has a broad view of history and states reasonable conclusions without too tight timelines. Very good education!!

D.R. Pitcock

I enjoyed the apocalyptic "what ifs" in the book. It sets your mind thinking about what would happen if I had to pay $15.00 a gallon for gas and under what circumstances. It isn't very prescient but is a good, measured approach to a chaotic world were it's a bit like a Mad Max movie.

Jane

Pretty interesting to read this over 5 years after it was written and realize his hypothesis about oil (at least over $100 a barrel) has happened. Overall - thought provoking.

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